This Week in Asia #45

Major Cineplex has announced another 10% share buyback. Hugel dropped 13% amid worries about the cost of building a US sales force. And Grab's CEO Anthony Tan bought US$30 million worth of shares on the open market.

Watchlist update

• Korean botox maker Hugel had a bad week, just after I published a deep-dive on it. At an 18 September investor event, Hugel announced it will buy back inventory from its US distributor, Benev, and shift to a direct sales-force model. Costs are likely to rise through at least the third quarter, or possibly longer. Brokers in Korea responded by cutting their price targets.
• Thai seaweed snack maker Taokaenoi announced a share buyback. Only 17 million shares, equivalent to 1.2% of shares outstanding. But it may provide signal value. Taokaenoi's snacks are legendary, but profits declined due to the price of seaweed. The EV/Sales is currently 1.2x, while the operating margin has fluctuated between 5% and 21%. The headline dividend yield is 6%.
• Major Cineplex's board approved yet another share buyback of up to 68 million shares, equivalent to up to 10% of shares outstanding. The Thai box office was strong in July and August 2026, but weaker in September. (Full disclosure: I own shares in Major Cineplex.)
• Blackstone increased its bid for IDP Education from AU$2.3 to AU$2.5 after the board rejected the last offer. That's a 56% premium to the pre-bid share price, but still down 94% from the all-time high. IDP serves as an agent for international students seeking admission to universities in English-speaking countries. It's also a co-owner of the International English Language Testing System. The stock has performed poorly after Australia, Canada, the UK and the US tightened their immigration policies. IDP also has some debt. It trades at 10x forward P/E.
• The big news in insider buying land is that Grab's CEO Anthony Tan bought US$30 million worth of shares in the open market on top of a US$900 million share buyback. The stock price has declined significantly since the peak in late 2025 after it acquired buy-now-pay-later firm Atom Financial. Grab now trades at 1.9x EV/Sales and has just turned profitable. US peer Uber sports a 12% operating margin. Be aware that Waymo is coming to Singapore in 2028.

Worth your time

• I enjoyed Meb Faber's interview with Kopernik Global's Dave Iben. He tends to focus on absolute cheapness in terms of Price/Book, and therefore prefers real assets to, say, US tech. He sees value in Brazil, Indonesia and the Philippines.
• I also enjoyed the Drew Cohen interview on SaaS companies on Chit Chat Stocks. Drew doesn't think AI will let companies replace enterprise software easily, since these systems are highly complex. He makes the point that the companies that sit on their users will have bargaining power in this new AI era. For example, Amazon is unlikely to be disrupted because it sits on its own inventory. Consumer software apps are much more at risk of displacement. Drew has his own YouTube channel, which is also fantastic.
• A young Dutch investor, Vincent Brandsma, interviewed me for his YouTube channel, The Sophron Network. Bright guy, asking excellent questions. In the interview, I argued that in emerging markets, stock picking tends to beat index investing, as indices are often poorly constructed and governance is weak. I characterized Indonesia as being in a capitulation phase, with investors becoming despondent. Meanwhile, South Korea is exciting given the ongoing governance reforms. I also discussed my IRR framework, targeting >20% IRR on entry.
• Finally, check out the short clip with Interactive Brokers' Thomas Peterffy. He's been buying land to hedge himself against democratic socialists taking control of the US government. He estimates the likelihood of the US going down the socialist path at around 20%. Separately, Alex Karp of Palantir bought 15,000 hectares of land in my native Sweden.

Hidden Champions of Indonesia

Sunday's post was on "hidden champions" in Indonesia. The country's stock market has suffered over the past few years, especially after Prabowo Subianto took over in 2024. Danantara, Patriot bonds, the new resource monopsony, land expropriation — they're all cause for concern. At the same time, I argue that consumer companies will probably be left to their own devices.

I also put together a list of the stocks I consider "hidden champions": companies with high return on equity or dominant market positions.

You can read the full deep-dive here:

Hidden Champions of Indonesia

20 “hidden champions” identified

Asian Century StocksMichael Fritzell