Presumably China has the data of what will actually happen if they really open up. So if we are to believe that there's hardly any herd immunity and vaccines that don't work and an elderly population that is significantly vulnerable, how can this be good? Realistically if it got too bad China would have to do like a national lockdown.
Furthermore, if leadership is seen as weak giving into mild protests, what is the future of this state's authority? All of this begs many questions.
They are either bluffing about reopening or unaware of how the sudden increase in deaths might be experienced as a reflection of their leadership. For me I see it as a loose loose situation.
If you look at alternative media, zero COVID seems to be more smoke and mirrors to provide cover for a rapidly imploding zombie economy e.g. all the problems in the property sector (where most middle class Chinese and Asians in general have their savings and investments tied up in...) where developers are having problems paying their suppliers will mean the banks have serious problems (like insolvency???) as property buyers, developers and their suppliers all have mortgages, credit lines etc with banks. People under lockdown or with quarantine status can't participate in bank runs and protests against developers or banks...
[I would remind readers that Malaysia, for example, had three political crises during COVID and three subsequent lockdowns or attempts by the government to have hard lockdowns of varying degrees that "coincided" with each political crisis...]
To exacerbate things, more and more companies are shifting at least part of their production out of China e.g. if the rumours about a big Apple-Foxconn shift are true, this will have huge reverberations throughout the Chinese economy as there would be many subcontractors part of the supply chain or at least businesses or rural villages dependent on income from these workers...
Legend
Presumably China has the data of what will actually happen if they really open up. So if we are to believe that there's hardly any herd immunity and vaccines that don't work and an elderly population that is significantly vulnerable, how can this be good? Realistically if it got too bad China would have to do like a national lockdown.
Furthermore, if leadership is seen as weak giving into mild protests, what is the future of this state's authority? All of this begs many questions.
They are either bluffing about reopening or unaware of how the sudden increase in deaths might be experienced as a reflection of their leadership. For me I see it as a loose loose situation.
If you look at alternative media, zero COVID seems to be more smoke and mirrors to provide cover for a rapidly imploding zombie economy e.g. all the problems in the property sector (where most middle class Chinese and Asians in general have their savings and investments tied up in...) where developers are having problems paying their suppliers will mean the banks have serious problems (like insolvency???) as property buyers, developers and their suppliers all have mortgages, credit lines etc with banks. People under lockdown or with quarantine status can't participate in bank runs and protests against developers or banks...
[I would remind readers that Malaysia, for example, had three political crises during COVID and three subsequent lockdowns or attempts by the government to have hard lockdowns of varying degrees that "coincided" with each political crisis...]
To exacerbate things, more and more companies are shifting at least part of their production out of China e.g. if the rumours about a big Apple-Foxconn shift are true, this will have huge reverberations throughout the Chinese economy as there would be many subcontractors part of the supply chain or at least businesses or rural villages dependent on income from these workers...
Michael, very good article. Thank you very much.
Are problems exacerbated by the Chinese vaccine and reluctance to use foreign vaccines? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/china-covid-lockdown-protests-fauci-says-beijing-did-bad-job-vaccinating-elderly.html