Presumably China has the data of what will actually happen if they really open up. So if we are to believe that there's hardly any herd immunity and vaccines that don't work and an elderly population that is significantly vulnerable, how can this be good? Realistically if it got too bad China would have to do like a national lockdown.
Furthermore, if leadership is seen as weak giving into mild protests, what is the future of this state's authority? All of this begs many questions.
They are either bluffing about reopening or unaware of how the sudden increase in deaths might be experienced as a reflection of their leadership. For me I see it as a loose loose situation.
I think the severity of Omicron is really quite low, somewhere around 0.06-0.13% mortality rate, in line with the flu. Of course, more people will get infected with Omicron than the flu. But the newer Omicron variants are nothing like the wild type variant.
90% of China's population has taken Sinovac shots, and they do offer some protection against Omicron. Whether that's enough for the government to go ahead with its "controlled burn" is unclear. It certainly seems like they're moving in that direction.
I don't think Chinese citizens saw much of the protests in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere. They were censored fast on Chinese social media. I think opening up will alleviate some of the concerns that people have had.
I personally don't believe this is a bluff. Because the spread of COVID-19 is undeniable, and will be difficult to stop unless harsh lockdowns are imposed yet again.
We're not seeing any major increase in deaths, and we didn't see it with Omicron in Singapore either. China's reporting of COVID-19 deaths is also quite different from that we've seen elsewhere in that deaths are only reported as COVID-19 deaths if the patient did not suffer from any other ailment at all. So there will be underreporting, helping to maintain party legitimacy.
If you look at alternative media, zero COVID seems to be more smoke and mirrors to provide cover for a rapidly imploding zombie economy e.g. all the problems in the property sector (where most middle class Chinese and Asians in general have their savings and investments tied up in...) where developers are having problems paying their suppliers will mean the banks have serious problems (like insolvency???) as property buyers, developers and their suppliers all have mortgages, credit lines etc with banks. People under lockdown or with quarantine status can't participate in bank runs and protests against developers or banks...
[I would remind readers that Malaysia, for example, had three political crises during COVID and three subsequent lockdowns or attempts by the government to have hard lockdowns of varying degrees that "coincided" with each political crisis...]
To exacerbate things, more and more companies are shifting at least part of their production out of China e.g. if the rumours about a big Apple-Foxconn shift are true, this will have huge reverberations throughout the Chinese economy as there would be many subcontractors part of the supply chain or at least businesses or rural villages dependent on income from these workers...
From what I can tell, the initial severity of Omicron including the newer variants is just not that high. Sinovac offers some protection as well, and 90% of China's population has received their first doses from Sinovac. So I don't think the vaccine question matters all that much.
That said, the government has started going on a vaccination drive. A new inhalable COVID-19 vaccine was launched in late October. They're discussing with BioNTech to potentially allow mRNA vaccines for expats resident in China.
So things are moving in the right direction with their vaccines as well.
Legend
Music to my ears, ha
This is great stuff, really enjoy the journalistic style of it. Thank you for making it an open article!
Presumably China has the data of what will actually happen if they really open up. So if we are to believe that there's hardly any herd immunity and vaccines that don't work and an elderly population that is significantly vulnerable, how can this be good? Realistically if it got too bad China would have to do like a national lockdown.
Furthermore, if leadership is seen as weak giving into mild protests, what is the future of this state's authority? All of this begs many questions.
They are either bluffing about reopening or unaware of how the sudden increase in deaths might be experienced as a reflection of their leadership. For me I see it as a loose loose situation.
I think the severity of Omicron is really quite low, somewhere around 0.06-0.13% mortality rate, in line with the flu. Of course, more people will get infected with Omicron than the flu. But the newer Omicron variants are nothing like the wild type variant.
90% of China's population has taken Sinovac shots, and they do offer some protection against Omicron. Whether that's enough for the government to go ahead with its "controlled burn" is unclear. It certainly seems like they're moving in that direction.
I don't think Chinese citizens saw much of the protests in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere. They were censored fast on Chinese social media. I think opening up will alleviate some of the concerns that people have had.
I personally don't believe this is a bluff. Because the spread of COVID-19 is undeniable, and will be difficult to stop unless harsh lockdowns are imposed yet again.
We're not seeing any major increase in deaths, and we didn't see it with Omicron in Singapore either. China's reporting of COVID-19 deaths is also quite different from that we've seen elsewhere in that deaths are only reported as COVID-19 deaths if the patient did not suffer from any other ailment at all. So there will be underreporting, helping to maintain party legitimacy.
If you look at alternative media, zero COVID seems to be more smoke and mirrors to provide cover for a rapidly imploding zombie economy e.g. all the problems in the property sector (where most middle class Chinese and Asians in general have their savings and investments tied up in...) where developers are having problems paying their suppliers will mean the banks have serious problems (like insolvency???) as property buyers, developers and their suppliers all have mortgages, credit lines etc with banks. People under lockdown or with quarantine status can't participate in bank runs and protests against developers or banks...
[I would remind readers that Malaysia, for example, had three political crises during COVID and three subsequent lockdowns or attempts by the government to have hard lockdowns of varying degrees that "coincided" with each political crisis...]
To exacerbate things, more and more companies are shifting at least part of their production out of China e.g. if the rumours about a big Apple-Foxconn shift are true, this will have huge reverberations throughout the Chinese economy as there would be many subcontractors part of the supply chain or at least businesses or rural villages dependent on income from these workers...
Michael, very good article. Thank you very much.
Are problems exacerbated by the Chinese vaccine and reluctance to use foreign vaccines? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/china-covid-lockdown-protests-fauci-says-beijing-did-bad-job-vaccinating-elderly.html
From what I can tell, the initial severity of Omicron including the newer variants is just not that high. Sinovac offers some protection as well, and 90% of China's population has received their first doses from Sinovac. So I don't think the vaccine question matters all that much.
That said, the government has started going on a vaccination drive. A new inhalable COVID-19 vaccine was launched in late October. They're discussing with BioNTech to potentially allow mRNA vaccines for expats resident in China.
So things are moving in the right direction with their vaccines as well.