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There isn't remotely enough copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese or rare earth mineral supply available to sustain the 11% growth in EVs. This to me, is by far the biggest obstacle in EV adoption and makes cost parity almost impossible unless there are significant new investments in these metals and materials (There aren't at the moment) starting immediately (Not happening either). There's a famous Dutch study I'm currently unable to find that said that simply moving the Netherlands alone to 100% EVs would consume most of the world's current supply of these metals.
• The sound quality between dB in ICE differs completely with EV. EV is high frequency which is very irritating. The low frequency boom of ICE is at times appreciated. The tire noise does not completely hide the EV noise. But lack of ICE noise makes wind and tire noise more noticeable in EVs. NVH is a bigger problem for EVs.
• The charge rate is not linearly constant. Can charge fast when near low SOC, but must taper off near Max SOC (SOC = state of charge). For long life, reputable OEMs use 20% to 80%, the middle 60%, some use more at top, so 20% to 90%. But the last amount is slow charged to reduce heat.
So, 90 kWh battery is not 90/50 = 1.45 hrs. Usable SOC is 18 kW low to 75kW, let’s say. 75 – 18 = 57 usable SOC, Can probably get 3/4th to 75kWh in 30 mins and then slow charge so most ppl on the road e-stations will not full charge. They will finish the charge at home.
• Cobalt will be no more in 3-4 years in LiB. Supply of cobalt is a big PR and logistic headache. Cobalt will still be needed for E&E components, even after batteries get rid of it. Without cobalt, it's possible that lower prices can be realized in the future.
• What is found is that cylindrical cells have advantage in energy density at cell level, but lose out to prismatic at pack level. Pouches need structural material, so they lose initial density vs prismatics, but at pack level, prismatics do well.
• Cities cannot support large numbers of DCFC 150 kW chargers due to current carrying limit of the cables. Charger stations at the edge of cities are better able to be upgraded to drop power lines from transmission lines. But in built-up urban areas, even suburbs, you cannot do this.
• MP Materials and Lynas Mines in AU are the only 2 non-CN REE miners and refiners. MP plans to make downstream magnets too. DOD forcing all CN magnets out of supply chain for US military. Having a monopoly should be good for margins.
• Not seeing why you believe cost parity will be so far off to 2030. This is not VW and GM public stance. Some of this is due to lack of economy of scale due to EV being 5% of global light vehicle sales.
• Be careful with Chinese volume statistics. 32% of China EV sales are A00 golf carts which can’t pass crash tests outside of China.
A comment from another reader:
There isn't remotely enough copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese or rare earth mineral supply available to sustain the 11% growth in EVs. This to me, is by far the biggest obstacle in EV adoption and makes cost parity almost impossible unless there are significant new investments in these metals and materials (There aren't at the moment) starting immediately (Not happening either). There's a famous Dutch study I'm currently unable to find that said that simply moving the Netherlands alone to 100% EVs would consume most of the world's current supply of these metals.
A few comments from a reader:
• The sound quality between dB in ICE differs completely with EV. EV is high frequency which is very irritating. The low frequency boom of ICE is at times appreciated. The tire noise does not completely hide the EV noise. But lack of ICE noise makes wind and tire noise more noticeable in EVs. NVH is a bigger problem for EVs.
• The charge rate is not linearly constant. Can charge fast when near low SOC, but must taper off near Max SOC (SOC = state of charge). For long life, reputable OEMs use 20% to 80%, the middle 60%, some use more at top, so 20% to 90%. But the last amount is slow charged to reduce heat.
So, 90 kWh battery is not 90/50 = 1.45 hrs. Usable SOC is 18 kW low to 75kW, let’s say. 75 – 18 = 57 usable SOC, Can probably get 3/4th to 75kWh in 30 mins and then slow charge so most ppl on the road e-stations will not full charge. They will finish the charge at home.
• Cobalt will be no more in 3-4 years in LiB. Supply of cobalt is a big PR and logistic headache. Cobalt will still be needed for E&E components, even after batteries get rid of it. Without cobalt, it's possible that lower prices can be realized in the future.
• What is found is that cylindrical cells have advantage in energy density at cell level, but lose out to prismatic at pack level. Pouches need structural material, so they lose initial density vs prismatics, but at pack level, prismatics do well.
• Cities cannot support large numbers of DCFC 150 kW chargers due to current carrying limit of the cables. Charger stations at the edge of cities are better able to be upgraded to drop power lines from transmission lines. But in built-up urban areas, even suburbs, you cannot do this.
• MP Materials and Lynas Mines in AU are the only 2 non-CN REE miners and refiners. MP plans to make downstream magnets too. DOD forcing all CN magnets out of supply chain for US military. Having a monopoly should be good for margins.
• Not seeing why you believe cost parity will be so far off to 2030. This is not VW and GM public stance. Some of this is due to lack of economy of scale due to EV being 5% of global light vehicle sales.
• Be careful with Chinese volume statistics. 32% of China EV sales are A00 golf carts which can’t pass crash tests outside of China.