Thoughts on Luk Fook (590 HK)? High insider ownership, 45% payout ratio, ample cash, has traded below book value. Benefitted from HK opening up to Chinese tourism in the 2000's with ROE's of 20-30% during 2007-2015. It's has somewhat of a moat, having the lowest SGA expenses as a percent of revenues of all the Cantonese jewellers. Furniture, jewellery, food & gifts appear to be more difficult for e-commerce to disrupt. It looks interesting under $20.
I have never spent any time on Luk Fook, unfortunately. Perhaps I should.
The Luk Fook brand seems strong to me. I agree with you on e-commerce.
What is the reason for the stock trading at just P/E 10x historically? It's hard to fathom given the company's net cash position, decent brand recognition and acceptable pay-out ratio.
From 2010-2015 they nearly tripled revenues and profits, just not the share price. Since 2015 international arrivals to HK have been essentially flat, their revenues seem to correspond with that so 'maybe' there is limited upside with travel growth to HK. Hard to see any downside risk at $18 /share when I reviewed it, roughly $4 per share in cash, $2.54 eps in 2019. The hourglass on SGX may be a comparable (with less growth, lower ROE, no exclusive brand rights) also recently trading sub 10x P/E at book value.
Thoughts on Luk Fook (590 HK)? High insider ownership, 45% payout ratio, ample cash, has traded below book value. Benefitted from HK opening up to Chinese tourism in the 2000's with ROE's of 20-30% during 2007-2015. It's has somewhat of a moat, having the lowest SGA expenses as a percent of revenues of all the Cantonese jewellers. Furniture, jewellery, food & gifts appear to be more difficult for e-commerce to disrupt. It looks interesting under $20.
I have never spent any time on Luk Fook, unfortunately. Perhaps I should.
The Luk Fook brand seems strong to me. I agree with you on e-commerce.
What is the reason for the stock trading at just P/E 10x historically? It's hard to fathom given the company's net cash position, decent brand recognition and acceptable pay-out ratio.
From 2010-2015 they nearly tripled revenues and profits, just not the share price. Since 2015 international arrivals to HK have been essentially flat, their revenues seem to correspond with that so 'maybe' there is limited upside with travel growth to HK. Hard to see any downside risk at $18 /share when I reviewed it, roughly $4 per share in cash, $2.54 eps in 2019. The hourglass on SGX may be a comparable (with less growth, lower ROE, no exclusive brand rights) also recently trading sub 10x P/E at book value.
2019
38% of sales licensed Mainland shops
62% of sales Hong Kong (& overseas)
2021
60% of sales licensed Mainland shops (stronger RMB, weaker gold price in 2021)
40% of sales Hong Kong (& overseas)