Monday morning links
Kishida will be Japan’s new prime minister: Fumio Kishida was elected leader of Japan’s ruling party LDP, making him a likely next prime minister. Kishida will focus on domestic issues such as lowering income inequality. His foreign policy is often compared with Obama’s, and he is likely to follow the Yoshida school of politics, which includes low defence spending.
Positive signals for Indonesian property: I spent the last week digging into the Indonesian property sector. What stood out to me is that credit growth has started to accelerate. But mortgage approvals have become accessible, and interest rates are at record lows.
Duterte’s resignation: Philippines President Duterte announced his resignation from politics. But a few days later, his daughter Sara Duterte confirmed that she would run for President in the 2022 elections. I believe that she will win.
Container ship stocks rolling over: I’m fascinated by booms and busts, and I can’t help thinking that the container ship boom is nearing its peak. Hapag-Lloyd’s recently commented that container shipping rates have peaked and the infamous Barron’s magazine cover curse.
Company-specific reports
(estimated reading time) ($ = behind a paywall)
I wrote a deep-dive on what I consider to be the best-managed property developer in Indonesia (IDX: ? — US$? billion) ($)
Superfluous Value Blog with a follow-up post on Ping An (SEHK: 2318 — US$131 billion)
Daniel Tabbush with a quick note on HSBC (LSE: HSBA — US$107 billion)
The searching 4 value blog on Japanese oil producer Inpex (TSE: 1605 — US$12 billion)
Smartkarma analyst Howard Klein on Cambodian casino operator NagaCorp (SEHK: 3918 — US$3.7 billion)
Blue Orca Capital bearish report on Chinese EV concept stock Hyzon Motors (NASDAQ: HYZN — US$1.6 billion) (h/t: The Bear Cave)
Olivier at the Emergingvalue blog on First Pacific (SEHK: 152 — US$1.5 billion)
Long-form writing
(estimated reading time) ($ = behind a paywall)
I wrote an introduction to the Indonesian property sector (20 mins) ($)
JP Morgan’s 4Q21 Guide to the Markets
Professor Kenneth Rogoff: China’s housing conundrum (7 mins)
Richard McGregor in Nikkei: The “Common Prosperity” drive hearkens back to the Mao era (15 mins) ($)
Richard Bernstein Advisors on the bubble in long-duration assets (11 mins)
Rob Arnott: Did I miss the (growth vs) value turn? (16 mins)
Daniel Tabbush with great charts on Asian bank stocks (4 mins)
Scott Kalani had an interesting write-up on the impact of divorce on fund manager returns (5 mins)
Lillian Li on Beijing’s push to develop a domestic semiconductor industry (x mins). Part 1 of the series is available here (31 mins).
The Reali-Xi Substack on the politics behind the downfall of China Evergrande (14 mins)
Net Interest Substack on the history of Chinese bank ICBC (9 mins)
Nikkei: One million Indonesian retail investors have opened accounts in the past year (5 mins) ($)
I posed a question on Twitter about which companies in Asia have the best management teams (2 mins)
Podcasts and videos
(listening time)
Jeremy Grantham: Part 1 on meme stocks (3 mins), Part 2 on ESG (6 mins)
Jim Grant on China Evergrande on Wealthtrack (27 mins)
Anas Alhajji on the outlook for global oil prices (58 mins)
Professor Barry Naughton on Beijing’s move to control private companies (1 hour)
Stephen Liu from Blue Whale Growth Fund on Chinese stocks (57 mins)
Lowy Institute on the prospects of an economic recovery in Asia (1:01 hours)
The Economist on Japan’s likely next PM Fumio Kishida (21 mins)
Christopher Hood on Japan’s Shinkansen train (54 mins)
Sector specialist J Mintzmyer on shipping stocks (x mins)
Sam Zell on Grant Williams’s podcast (full version: 1:05 hours) ($)
Chart of the week – Relative size of stock markets 1989 vs today
Thanks for reading, and I wish you a great week ahead!
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