Its been coming up as a fund holding in my fund posts and will include your post in my Monday links... The ratings downgrades are a concern - I have not looked close enough into their debt-cash situation though... I think its going to take awhile for Chinese tourists to come back to Cambodia plus they need to make it safer there (Sihanoukville has always been a bit rough....) for Chinese (e.g. the stories you hear about human trafficking of young Chinese to work in scam call centers and the like)...
Oh there is also a Korean Casino stock with a monopoly in Korea (locals I think are allowed into some of their opts) - same problem: Waiting for the foreign tourists to return...
ha - you picked a fun one Michael. Lots of landmines on this one. Beijing crackdown. unclear regulatory environment. plenty of negative reviews about "adult" activities that are transacted in the lobby/restaurants. Have picked this stock up a few time in the past but always put it back down.
Oct 12, 2023·edited Oct 12, 2023Liked by Michael Fritzell
Yeah, I don't see why you need a 3.5bn project when VIP is driving revenue. VIPs take up less gaming floor space than mass market customers. I believe VIP gambling will be less given the crack down. With all 3 projects so close to each other, unless supply meets demand, the building of Naga 3 could reduce the traffic in the NAGA 1 and 2. It was smart of them to extend the construction deadline to 2029. Not to mention, Japan is opening up casinos as well, adding an additional spot for tourist gambling. Money laundering likely won't be a thing in Japan though. Investment thesis becomes weird though, you only need so many rooms and tables in Naga3 for mass market, but mass market don't need to money launder so Japan/Macau/Las Vegas/Singapore/etc. become direct competitors for mass market business.
Its been coming up as a fund holding in my fund posts and will include your post in my Monday links... The ratings downgrades are a concern - I have not looked close enough into their debt-cash situation though... I think its going to take awhile for Chinese tourists to come back to Cambodia plus they need to make it safer there (Sihanoukville has always been a bit rough....) for Chinese (e.g. the stories you hear about human trafficking of young Chinese to work in scam call centers and the like)...
To me, Galaxy seems like the best positioned Casino stock in Asia: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/galaxy-entertainment-macau-best-casino-stock/comments
Oh there is also a Korean Casino stock with a monopoly in Korea (locals I think are allowed into some of their opts) - same problem: Waiting for the foreign tourists to return...
ha - you picked a fun one Michael. Lots of landmines on this one. Beijing crackdown. unclear regulatory environment. plenty of negative reviews about "adult" activities that are transacted in the lobby/restaurants. Have picked this stock up a few time in the past but always put it back down.
Yeah, I don't see why you need a 3.5bn project when VIP is driving revenue. VIPs take up less gaming floor space than mass market customers. I believe VIP gambling will be less given the crack down. With all 3 projects so close to each other, unless supply meets demand, the building of Naga 3 could reduce the traffic in the NAGA 1 and 2. It was smart of them to extend the construction deadline to 2029. Not to mention, Japan is opening up casinos as well, adding an additional spot for tourist gambling. Money laundering likely won't be a thing in Japan though. Investment thesis becomes weird though, you only need so many rooms and tables in Naga3 for mass market, but mass market don't need to money launder so Japan/Macau/Las Vegas/Singapore/etc. become direct competitors for mass market business.
What do you think about the delay of Naga 3, does that affect your valuation?