Monday morning links
Monday morning links
Election in the Philippines, Ten Sixty Four, Bridgewater's outlook, capital controls
Today, a national election is held in the Philippines. Former dictator Ferdinand Marcos’ only son “Bongbong Marcos” is leading the polls to become the next President. His rise has been driven by a slick social media campaign on TikTok and Facebook. Current President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter “Sara Duterte” will likely become the new Vice President.
My base case is that a Marcos-Duterte leadership will provide continuity for the tycoons who control the economy. But if martial law is introduced again - like during the Ferdinand Marcos era - all bets are off.
($ = behind a paywall)
I wrote a report on Ten Sixty Four, a cash-rich Philippine gold miner listed in Australia (MML AU — US$118 million) ($)
(estimated reading time) ($ = behind a paywall)
I went through the literature to understand what strategies investors have used to combat protracted bear markets (11 mins)
Bridgewater: Update from our Chief Investment Officers (11 mins)
Ray Dalio on the popping of bubble stocks (9 mins)
Third Point’s 1Q22 investor letter (12 mins)
Interview with Fred Liu from Hayden Capital in Graham & Doddsville (17 pages)
Horizon Kinetics discussing Russia, energy markets and ESG (1:35 hours)
Calafia Beach Pundit: M2 still has a lot of inflation potential (5 mins)
Swen Lorenz asks himself a pertinent question: what if capital controls are imposed in the countries you invest in? (11 mins)
Asianometry: Is there a semiconductor industry bust coming? (10 mins)
Barry Eichengreen: International financial consequences of Putin (4 mins)
The Wall Street Journal provides numbers on how the Chinese economy has been impacted by the ongoing lockdowns (8 mins) ($)
Photo essay: What I see from my Shanghai apartment (3 mins)
(listening time)
Nikkei Asia Stream on the Philippines election (40 mins)
Gautam Jain at Smartkarma discussing emerging markets FX (35 mins)
Pippa Malmgren on how Putin sees the world (55 mins)
Javier Blas explains how commodity trading companies work (60 mins)
Carson Block on short-selling in a world of rising rates (52 mins)
Jim Chanos on tech stocks imploding (54 mins)
Jim Grant on rising interest rates (49 mins)
Lam Peng Er on Singapore-China relations (40 mins)
NUS Professor Alex Cook on Singapore’s recovery from COVID-19 (7 mins)
(Largest new programs as % of the market cap; min market cap: US$200m)
Yamada Holdings (20.7%) (9831 JP — US$2.9 billion)
Cloud Village (10.4%) (9899 HK — US$1.6 billion)
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (10.2%) (1052 HK — US$1.0 billion)
Hong Kong Technology Venture (10.2%) (1137 HK — US$759 million)
Yuexiu Property (10.0%) (123 HK — US$3.1 billion)
(Largest over past 7 days; min market cap: US$200m)
Kingboard Holdings: US$178,000 (148 HK — US$5.0 billion)
Inari Amertron: US$126,000 (INRI MK — US$2.3 billion)
Hanwha Corporation: US$93,000 (000880 KS — US$1.8 billion)
DGB Financial: US$35,000 (139130 KS — US$1.2 billion)
Ancom Nylex: US$21,000 (ANC MK — US$225 million)
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