Links round-up
Asia investment-related write-ups, articles and podcasts
Looking at the chart and the number of Japanese stocks mentioned below, it’s clear that Japan is in a bull market. I’m getting similar vibes as in the early 2021 Chinese tech bull market. But the Japan story is decent, and the valuation multiples remain low. The only question is what might happen to the export-dependent market if and when the yen strengthens.
The write-up that stood out to me among the links below is Contrarian Cashflows’s post on ZIGExN. It’s a Japanese roll-up of online matching platforms, and its strategy has worked well, with EPS growth of 26% per year over the past decade. It has a decent acquisition pipeline, suggesting growth will continue. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 16x, which isn’t a bargain multiple, but it could be worse.
If you want to hear the bear case for the Chinese equities, check out Kyle Bass’s interview below. He thinks the CCP is preparing for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, that foreign investors in China’s real estate market will be wiped out and that the Renminbi is bound to depreciate. I don’t have the same conviction as Kyle Bass, but I agree that caution is warranted when it comes to mainland Chinese equities.
Aristotle Capital on HVAC firm Daikin Industries (🇯🇵 6367 JP - US$42 billion)
East Asia Stock Insights on clothing brand Anta (🇨🇳 2020 HK - US$28 billion)
East Asia Stock Insights on clothing brand Li Ning (🇨🇳 2331 HK - US$6.6 billion)
WinterGems on logistics company KamiGumi (🇯🇵 9364 JP - US$2.4 billion)
WinterGems on excavator company Takeuchi (🇯🇵 6432 JP - US$1.7 billion)
Deep-dive into bowling stock Round One Corp (🇯🇵 4680 JP - US$1.2 billion)
Sweet Stocks on housing redeveloper Katitas (🇯🇵 8919 JP - US$1.0 billion)
Oriental Value on beauty service Perfect Medical (🇭🇰 1830 HK - US$521 million)
Yoyogi Capital on beverages company Lifedrink (🇯🇵 2585 JP - US$400 million)
Contrarian Cashflows on Japanese roll-up ZIGExN (🇯🇵 3679 JP - US$382 million)
Pyramids and Pagodas on Plover Bay Tech (🇭🇰 1523 HK - US$366 million)
DaBao on Taiwanese industrial distributor Lumax (🇹🇼 6192 JP - US$307 million)
MikroKap: quick note on Tianjin Development (🇨🇳 882 HK - US$208 million)
AlmostMongolian on tin producer Metals X (🇦🇺 MLX AU - US$198 million)
Continuous Compounding on toy maker SK Japan (🇯🇵 7608 JP - US$39 million)
Hurdle Rate on Japanese lawyer HR-platform Asiro (🇯🇵 7378 JP - US$35 million)
(estimated reading time)
Searching 4 Value with a summary of the book The Art of Execution (3 pages)
Petty Cash with a summary of Annie Duke’s book Thinking in Bets (7 mins)
Kathmandu Capital’s 4Q2023 letter discussing Nagacorp and Kaspi (6 pages)
Altay Capital on Japan’s corporate governance reforms (4 mins)
Exante Data: is China intervening in its FX market? (2 mins)
Made in Japan: a peek into Japanese roll-ups (11 mins)
Emerging World: Rare interview with Mark Mobius on his worldview (17 mins)
(listening time)
Mark Mobius says he’s seeing value in some Hong Kong stocks (7 mins)
Kyle Bass offers an incredibly bearish view of the Chinese economy (1:04 hours)
Kerr Neilson on his career and newfound optimism about Japan (1:01 hours)
Marc Faber on My Worst Investment Ever Podcast (56 mins)
Michael McGaughy on investing in frontier markets (46 mins)
Whitney Baker on opportunities in emerging markets (1:23 hours)
Michael Fritzell (me) with 1Q2024 macro talk: HK, Philippines, Korea (32 mins)
Michael Fritzell (me) on Analyse Asia discussing my background, etc. (52 mins)
Thank you for reading! 🙏
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