China's business cycle will soon peak

There are early signs that China’s credit growth has started to decelerate. Coupled with a slow roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines and over-reliance on pandemic-related exports, we could be seeing the peak of the business cycle in the middle of 2021.

Credit growth indicators

Xi Jinping chaired a Politburo meeting on 30 April. That meeting emphasized the follo…

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