Asia links 14 Jan 2021: US Framework for the Indo-Pacific, Chinese property bubble, oil price vs oil stocks
Insight #1 – The US State Department’s 2018 US Framework for the Indo-Pacific states it wants to accelerate India’s rise
The just-declassified 2018 US Framework for the Indo-Pacific outlines the US approach under Trump on how to deal with an expansionist China. It predicts that Communist China will take increasingly assertive steps to compel “unification” with Taiwan. It wants to enable Taiwan to develop an effective asymmetric defense strategy. It outlines stronger cooperation with India, Korea, Japan and Australia. The most interesting part of the document is that the US wants to “accelerate India’s rise”, including helping the country with its domestic economic reforms. Lastly, the US states that it wants to invest in capabilities that promote uncensored communication between Chinese people. Smart commentary on the document here and here.
Insight #2 – The restrictions on Chinese property lending are halting the rise, not popping the bubble
The new Chinese credit cycle is now 12 months…