> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Alan: Creek & River (4763 JP) - URL: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/alan-creek-river-4763-jp/ - Published: 2026-08-26T06:37:40.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-26T06:37:40.000Z - Author: Michael Fritzell - Tags: Deep-dives, Japan *Hi! I'm Michael. This is a *free-to-read edition* of* [*Asian Century Stocks*](https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/) *– a newsletter about Asian value stocks. New to the publication? Sign up* [*here*](https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/interview-andrei-stetsenko/#/portal/signup/free)*.* [Upgrade to paid](https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/#/portal/signup) **Disclaimer: I'm Michael Fritzell, and this interview — including the video, transcript and summary below — is published by Delante Media Pte Ltd. It is a record of a conversation and is provided for information purposes only. It is not investment advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The views expressed by Alan are his own, not mine, and neither of us has considered your objectives, financial situation or needs. Please do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision. As of 26 August 2026, I do not own Creek & River but I do own shares in Visional. My only compensation in connection with this publication is subscription revenue from Asian Century Stocks. I receive no fee, referral commission or other consideration from Alan or any of his companies, and no link in this post is an affiliate link. Alan writes the Continuous Compounding Substack and has told me that as of 26 August 2026 he holds shares in Creek & River. His positions may change at any time without notice. I have not independently verified his statements, figures or characterizations of any company or its conduct.* --- Last Thursday, I [sat down](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Urw99sHKpNo&ref=asiancenturystocks.com) with Alan from the [Continuous Compounding Substack](https://continuouscompounding.substack.com/) to discuss the Japanese talent agency [**Creek & River**](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/4763.T/?ref=asiancenturystocks.com) *(4763 JP — US$203 million)*. I tried to ask a wide variety of questions so that you can understand all aspects of the business. The opinions are all Alan's, not my own. In any case, here's a short summary of the discussion, if you prefer to read rather than watch. # 1\. Alan's background Alan is based in Vancouver, Canada. After studying at the University of British Columbia, he spent 3-4 years on the sell-side doing equity research. At the time, he was covering casinos, gambling, tobacco and alcohol stocks – and even adult leisure facilities. So he became known within the company as the "non-ESG analyst". That said, after a few years, he felt that he'd reached a plateau. And part of his frustration was that he covered stocks that were handed to him and were fairly valued, rather than truly overlooked stocks. Eventually, the firm he worked for was sold, and he found himself out of a job, despite strong reviews. So early in his career, he took the risk of starting a Substack and trying to make money writing about stocks. His longer-term goal is to become a portfolio manager, and until then, compound his knowledge and wealth. [![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/2c/05/2c053c06-80c0-447b-904b-e324017b1293/content/images/2026/08/image-117.png)](https://continuouscompounding.substack.com/) The Continuous Compounding Substack At [Continuous Compounding](https://continuouscompounding.substack.com/), his goal is to know each stock better than most shareholders and give readers enough to reach their own conclusions. --- # 2\. His love for Japanese equities Many of the stocks discussed at Continuous Compounding so far have been Japanese equities. There are two reasons for this. First, he has an affinity for Japanese culture. Second, the competition is much lower in Japanese small- and micro-caps. It's like you're a 2,100 ELO chess player. Do you want to compete with 2,300 players in the United States or 1,000-1,500 players in Japan? The answer is obvious. Unlike many Japanese investors who run diversified stock portfolios, he runs a concentrated portfolio. The screen begins with whether the stock is undervalued. But then the real question becomes: is there an element of growth that the market is missing? Perhaps a revenue segment people are underestimating, operating leverage or an opportunity to allocate excess capital? The classic value trap is a cheap, cash-generative company whose management team sits on the cash for a rainy day, often with a family holding a large stake that just wants stability. The cash never gets deployed, and the multiple never re-rates. You'll want to avoid those. --- # 3\. Creek & River's business model The company was founded in the early 1990s by a TV producer working out of his own apartment. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/2c/05/2c053c06-80c0-447b-904b-e324017b1293/content/images/2026/08/image-116.png) Founder Yukihiro Igawa He served the TV and film industry, finding talent for particular projects. It then moved into the medical industry, reallocating physicians across hospitals and taking a cut of the person's salary. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/2c/05/2c053c06-80c0-447b-904b-e324017b1293/content/images/2026/08/mqcZY-creek-amp-river-s-share-price-4763-jp-.png) Today, Creek & River has three main businesses: - The core **agency** business, connecting talent with employers. There's the dispatch service where a client needs a temporary worker for a short period of time. Then there's the placement service, where a client wants a permanent hire, and Creek & River collects a fee scaled to the candidate's salary. - The second business is **production**. For example, if a TV channel like NHK wants a new TV show, Creek & River might assemble a director, a screenwriter, a stage designer and the rest of the crew from its network. It then quotes the client a price for the whole project. The same model also applies to the gaming and marketing industries. - Finally, Creek & River offers **rights management services**, offering owners of intellectual property ways to monetize the value of their assets. Such assets might include manga, webtoons or similar content. --- # 4\. The competitive landscape Creek & River has narrowed down its universe of job types to 50 professional fields. To get there, it's focused on three main criteria: - The expertise must be globally in demand - It must not be easily replaced by machines or AI - And it must be a profession where intellectual property accumulates So the video game industry, animation, and marketing industries are obvious targets. The business can't really be replaced by the gig economy. There's not much overlap there, since those workers sit below the skills threshold. Meanwhile, LinkedIn is an entirely different business model – a professional network where job postings are passive and aimed at permanent hires. No firm looking for a temporary worker starts on LinkedIn. The only real overlap is in the placement industry. There's real competition from online job boards here. But Creek & River still delivers on speed. Instead of posting a job and waiting, say, three months, clients get pre-screened talent immediately. Nobody uses LinkedIn to staff a production project. Agency revenue has been flat despite rising wages. One potential reason is competition and innovation in the human resources industry. [**Visional**](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/4194.T/?ref=asiancenturystocks.com)'s *(4194 JP — US$1.9 billion)* BizReach is such an innovation, as it allows clients to scout for talent themselves. There's also been a structural decline in some markets like linear television. In 2024, there was also a shock when Microsoft closed a large Japanese video game developer. But despite these headwinds, Creek & River has grown its earnings per share over time: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/2c/05/2c053c06-80c0-447b-904b-e324017b1293/content/images/2026/08/lrbht-creek-amp-river-s-earnings-per-share-japanese-yen-.png) Part of Creek & River's raison d'être is that Japan has strict labor laws. A profitable firm cannot simply cut a third of its developers – it essentially has to be losing money, or exit the market entirely. So employers who don't want a permanent cost structure rent expertise instead. --- # 5\. The segment scorecard Here’s how the key segments stack up: - The entire Creative JP segment (the core part of the business excluding medical, accounting & legal and succession advisory) is up 30% since FY2023\. The performance of the sub-segments are as follows: - The TV and movie segment has grown from JPY 8 billion to JPY 12 billion since FY2023\. And now they've moved into the MSC Marunouchi building, whose first eleven floors consolidate Creek & River's "Creative Japan" talent under one roof. - The games segment has grown from JPY 11.5 billion to JPY 16 billion. - The web segment grew from JPY 8.5 billion to JPY 10 billion. - The e-book and YouTube businesses are also up from JPY 900 million to JPY 1.3 billion. - Creative Korea is down about 10% in revenue terms and has consistently lost money. The business model doesn't seem to travel well internationally. - Meanwhile, the Medical segment is up +8% since FY2023 and remains one of the main cash cows. - The Professional field, e.g., accounting and legal, is flat and has been struggling. - AI/DX/IT hasn’t grown much, though shows lots of future promise. So overall, within Creative Japan, growth seems to have been driven by TV and Movies, Gaming, and Web subsegments. Outside of Creative JP, steady growth from the medical field agency business has also been instrumental in the company’s growth. Alan argues some of the "secret sauce" is customer acquisition. Creek & River hosts the Resident Navi fair for medical students seeking placements. IT also publishes magazines sent to anyone in the network with news, updates and skills content. That keeps talent in the network and positions them as a leader within each niche. --- # 6\. The AI threat The AI threat is real. The stock and its peers have sold off on the logic that fewer employees will be needed, and Alan thinks that's why the stock trades at 7x P/E. He takes a different view, for a few reasons: - First, there hasn't been much of a decline in the core fields yet. His read is that AI is currently assisting people rather than replacing them. - Second, he thinks the erosion could be gradual enough that the capital allocation machine diversifies away from it first. - Third, he argues that the AI/DX/IT division could actually benefit from AI transformation projects. AI consulting is a high-margin business, where you can charge clients high hourly rates. And as Creek & River gains transformation know-how, it can deploy those professionals into the legacy businesses it acquires. *(Michael's note: these are forward-looking judgments rather than observations. Just because we haven't seen an impact yet doesn't mean it won't show up in the future. Whether M&A will help remains to be seen. There's also competition in the AI consulting industry. A 7x P/E could simply be consistent with the market being right about the threat.)* --- # 7\. Capital allocation and M&A Some of the cash that has been built up on the balance sheet has been used for M&A. For example, subsidiary CRES / Everlasting Story began a few years ago as an incubation program: investing in intellectual property rights for virtual reality content, doing non-fungible tokens for rights management groups. But today, "CRES / Everlasting Story" is about business succession consulting. It had 240 consultations last year, which Alan thinks is like an organic, proprietary deal flow, acquiring small family companies where there's no obvious successor. He thinks the number of consultations will keep climbing, to perhaps 300, then 500\. The other parts of the business can then help out, sourcing talent from a network of 2,500 former CEOs, CFOs, CIOs and CMOs, who can then be placed into these companies to fill temporary roles. Recently, Creek & River acquired a book publisher called Takahashi Shoten for JPY 9.5 billion or 13-14x EV/EBIT. It dominates the market for physical planners in Japan, and also sells wall and desk calendars and books. It also publishes employment guides, similar to the Vault Guides in the West. 13-14x EV/EBIT was arguably a high price to pay. A JPY 500 million buyback program was announced in January 2025\. Unfortunately, they had to shut it down to finance the Takahashi acquisition, and the buyback was never executed. Today, the net cash position stands at about JPY 6 billion. --- # 8\. Summary Asked to summarize, Alan argued that Creek & River trades at a low multiple against its annual cash flows. But in Japan, cash generation isn't the differentiator, because many companies just accumulate cash on the balance sheet. In Alan's view, Creek & River differs in how it deploys capital into business-succession M&A. He suggested that one reason the stock is priced where it is may be that Creek & River has been basketed with other specialized agency firms trading at 4-6x EV/EBIT – none of which, in his view, have this capital allocation optionality. At the price prevailing when we spoke on 20 August, Alan considered Creek & River to have greater upside than downside. In his view, it could still work even if management pays a fair price, or even slightly overpays, for its acquisitions. *(Michael's note: just because Creek & River has performed well doesn't mean that it will perform well in the future. The AI threat is real, since many of the services can now be replicated through generative AI tools. There's also a question of whether the placement industry will continue to be disrupted through scouting websites like BizReach, allowing clients to find talent quickly at minimal cost.)* --- # 9\. Where people can learn more You can find Alan's work at the [Continuous Compounding Substack](https://continuouscompounding.substack.com/). His full write-up on Creek & River can be found [here](https://continuouscompounding.substack.com/p/my-2nd-highest-conviction-deep-dive). He also posts on X under the handle [@CompoundingUp](https://x.com/CompoundingUp?ref=asiancenturystocks.com). He also has a [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@continuouscompounding?ref=asiancenturystocks.com) under the same name where he live-streams stock breakdowns and screens for new ideas. He will head to Japan for three months from around October to November for boots-on-the-ground research, so if you're there, feel free to reach out to him. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G3nA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6f96653e-67cf-48ea-8fa2-6721ec448e28_1100x51.png) [Upgrade to paid](https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/#/portal/subscribe)